Allayarova E.R., Molodtsov V.V., Popova K.V., Sergeev M.G., Storozhenko S.YU.
Amurian zoological journal 2024; 16(3): 645-657
The goal of this article is to estimate the opportunities for range shifts of the widely distributed grasshopper Celes skalozubovi now and in the future (until 2060) in view of the possible changes of their population statuses. The general distribution of C. skalozubovi over Eurasia is assessed by its occurrence points. High levels of species abundance are revealed for the steppe landscapes of the Altai-Sayan Mts. The uneven, sometimes insular, character of its distribution is described for West Siberia, North Kazakhstan, and the Russian Far East. Ecological and geographic modelling based on the MaxEnt algorithm allows to reveal two opposite trends in the possible distribution of the species in the future, especially in the middle of the 21st century. In particular, the habitat conditions may significantly worsen for a major part of the species range relative to the modern situation. However, they may improve in East Siberia and the region near the Sea of Okhotsk.
