Potential distribution of the monophagous longhorn beetle Rosalia coelestis Semenov, 1911 (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae: Cerambycinae) in Northeast Asia under climate change
Kuprin A.V. 1 , Shevchenko N.E. 2 , Lin M.-Y. 3
2 Isaev Centre for Forest Ecology and Productivity of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia
3 Engineering Research Center for Forest and Grassland Disaster Prevention and Reduction / Ecological Security and Protection Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, School of Life Sciences (School of Ecological Forestry), Mianyang Normal University, Mianyang, China
Year: 2026, Number: 548, Pages: 1-23
Using MaxEnt algorithms, this study provides the first assessment of the potential distribution range of Rosalia coelestis Semenov, 1911, a longhorn beetle with a narrow trophic specialization in Northeast Asia. According to the modeling results, the current area of the most suitable habitats for the species is estimated at 3,554,100 km². It was demonstrated that, according to three climate models MRI-ESM2-0, MPI-ESM1-2-HR, and BCC-CSM2-MR by 2080–2100, under different greenhouse gas emission scenarios (SSPs), a reduction in the area of habitats suitable for R. coelestis will occur in Northeast Asia. The core of the monophagous species’ range will be concentrated in the valley broad-leaved forests of southern Primorye and in certain regions of Northern and Eastern China, which may be associated with a sufficient availability of the beetle larvae’s primary host plant, Acer tegmentosum.
DOI: 10.25221/fee.548.1
Keywords: Coleoptera, monophagous longhorn beetle, Rosalia coelestis, rare species, northeast Asia, distribution, climate change, spatial modeling, MaxEnt, potential area, climatic parameters,
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